Saturday, June 21, 2014

Will September witness a crash?

A customer asks: “Come September we will be witnessing the Grand Super Cycle bottom. I wish to seek your views on buy and hold shares people like me. Would you advise that one should not hold any before the 90 days arrive? I am retired and won’t be affected much by career matters. I don’t have any form of business to operate. So, my nest eggs $ is in the stock market.

Answer: he upcoming Grand Super Cycle bottom will most likely be a mild affair -- much milder than Bud Kress originally anticipated.  I think the main reason for this is because the 2008-2009 credit crash was so severe that it, much like the 1929 market crash, satisfied the demand for the 40-year cycle bottom a few years early.  The odds of a crash between now and September are slim and any correction the market may suffer between now and then should be only temporary and likely won't derail the bull market which began in Q2 2009.