Monday, July 1, 2013

U.S. safe from overseas deflation for now

The selling pressure which hit stocks and bonds in June left the U.S. retail economy unscathed.  

Among the individual corporate stock components of the New Economy Index (NEI), which measures the real-time strength of the economy, only Wal-Mart (WMT) took a sizable tumble in June.  Monster Worldwide (MWW), the jobs component of the NEI, also plunged last month but its stock price accounts for only a small amount of the index.

Meanwhile Amazon (AMZN), EBay (EBAY) and FedEx (FDX) – the other important components of the index – are in varying degrees of health or recovery.  The signals reflected in the stock price performance of these three stocks alone are worth a hundred conventional economic indicators of the type relied on by mainstream economists. 

The NEI reading for last week was in line with the reading of recent weeks, viz. the NEI is still holding on above its 12-week and 20-week moving averages.  The interim uptrend for the index remains intact (below), therefore we still have a confirmed “buy” signal for the U.S. economy. 

Deflationary pressure is expected to resurface as we head closer to the final “hard down” phase of the long-term Kress cycle in 2014, but for now those pressures are confined mainly to Europe and Asia and haven’t yet appeared in the U.S.  The domestic retail economy, along with the consumer spending that supports it, is still firm.

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