National chain store sales 0.6% in the first
three weeks of May from April, according to Redbook Research. Sales for the week rose 2.7% year-over-year.
But are retail sales poised to encounter a summer
slow-down? That possibility is suggested
by the recent behavior of the New Economy Index (NEI), which measures the stock
price performance of the leading U.S. retail and business economy
companies.
The latest NEI chart, as of May 31, shows that
while the dominant intermediate-term trend remains up (see black arrow) the
short-term trend is slightly down (red arrow).
NEI reached an all-time high on Jan. 21 and has been making a series of
slightly lower highs ever since. While
the overall trend of retail sales as reflected by NEI remains up, it would
appear that the retail economy may encounter a period of sluggishness
ahead. That sluggishness would most
likely occur during the “summer doldrums” period.
No comments:
Post a Comment