Sideways trading range
markets have their own unique characteristics – both technically and
psychologically. More than any other
emotion trading ranges tend to elicit frustration from investors. Nothing, after all, is more irritating to an
investor than having to sit through long periods where stocks are making little
or no progress. The longer the trading
range persists, the more frustrated and impatient investors tend to
become.
If the trading range is
established in the midst of a longer-term uptrend it’s not uncommon for
investor sentiment to remain stubbornly bullish for an extended period. Investors have become so conditioned to
rising stock prices that it often takes several months of a grinding lateral
trend before they finally lose their enthusiasm. It’s when investors finally become more
pessimistic on equities that the market commonly breaks out from the trading
range. In other words, investors
normally have to be “head faked” before the market can proceed to a higher level.
That pattern appears to
be playing out in the U.S. broad market.
After spending the better part of the last six months in a sideways
trend, the NYSE Composite Index (NYA) appears to finally be on the brink of a
breakout to a new high this spring. What
makes this even more intriguing is the current backdrop of investor sentiment….
Market psychology isn’t
as important as the market’s internal momentum and overall technical backdrop,
yet it can still yield clues as the market’s next directional move. And the current readings of both the “smart
money” and “dumb money” sentiment indicators reflect an improving psychological
backdrop. Once the short-term internal
momentum indicators improve this should prove quite handy in providing the
market with enough fuel for an extended rally later this spring. [Excerpted from the Mar. 23 Momentum Strategies Report]
