One
thing to watch this summer is price of oil. An oil price spike has been the catalyst to
several market reversals in past years and could, should it continue, derail
the bull market.
I’m
closely monitoring the 26.00 level in the iPath Goldman Sachs Crude Oil Total
Return Index (OIL); historically a breakout above this benchmark resistance
level has preceded an interim top in the S&P 500 Index (SPX). The OIL monthly chart suggests a test of the
26.00 level is coming up this summer after several months of slowly inching up
toward this benchmark.
Under
this scenario, a potential repeat of the August-September 1998 mini-bear market
would be possible. For now, though, consider
that the market’s main trend is up as the bulls still hold sway.
