Thursday, March 7, 2013

Jeers but no cheers for Dow's new high

The Dow reached an all-time high of 14,253 on Tuesday and naturally, the financial press drew lots of attention to this fact.  Conspicuously absent from the media attention, however, was a complete lack of enthusiasm.  The perma-bull cheering section was eerily quiet as widespread apathy was evident.  This continues a trend of muted investor psychology which I find refreshing given how far the market has come since November.  

I was rather surprised to see a feature article on the landing page entitled, “Why the Dow Is Still Rising After Yesterday’s High.”  Instead of cheering the Dow’s accomplishment as mainstream media sources are wont to do, the article by John Maxfield urged investors to tread cautiously and to not “get too excited.”  My how things have changed since 2007! 

Another article appeared on Yahoo’s financial site with the headline:  “With Dow Industrials at Record Highs, When Will Gravity Take Hold?”  So here we have another example of observers waiting for the inevitable pullback instead of focusing on the all-time high.  It’s another clear instance of the seismic shift in investor psychology since the credit crisis.  Investors have been psychologically conditioned to mistrust any rally and to expect it to be followed by a sell-off.  

Bullish enthusiasm is at low ebb, which is not at all consistent with a major market top.  Bottom line: the uptrend continues.

No comments: